According to the source, NYDIG’s Greg Cipollaro states Bitcoin is not an inflation hedge but a liquidity barometer that tends to perform better when the U.S. dollar weakens (source: NYDIG, Greg Cipollaro). For trading, this points to monitoring the ICE U.S. Dollar Index trend, where DXY downside aligns with more favorable BTC risk conditions per Cipollaro’s framework (sources: NYDIG; ICE U.S. Dollar Index). Traders can also track U.S. liquidity gauges such as the Federal Reserve balance sheet (H.4.1), Reverse Repo usage, and the Treasury General Account to assess dollar liquidity shifts that may influence crypto risk appetite under the NYDIG liquidity lens (sources: Federal Reserve H.4.1; Federal Reserve Overnight RRP; U.S. Treasury TGA; NYDIG).

According to @cas_abbe, USD weakness historically aligns with an expansion in global money supply, and during these liquidity upswings BTC is typically the first mover, with the same setup unfolding today, source: @cas_abbe on X.

According to Andre Dragosch, BTC accelerates when U.S. governance quality deteriorates and the dollar weakens, implying a risk-hedge bid for crypto during macro stress (source: Andre Dragosch on X, Aug 17, 2025). Historically, BTC has shown extended periods of negative 90-day correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index, indicating that USD weakness often coincided with BTC strength for multi-week windows (source: Kaiko Research market updates 2023-2024). In Q4 2023, a drop in DXY from the mid-100s was accompanied by a sharp BTC rally, illustrating the inverse USD–BTC relationship in practice (source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and Coin Metrics price series, Q4 2023). BTC has also tended to move inversely with U.S. real yields, with declines in 10-year TIPS yields aligning with broader risk-on behavior in digital assets (source: Coin Metrics and Glassnode research briefs 2022-2024). Traders commonly monitor DXY, 10-year real yields, and Treasury volatility via the MOVE Index to time BTC breakouts around policy or liquidity shocks (source: Coinbase Institutional weekly markets commentary 2023-2024).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Dollar Index ($DXY) has reached a new 52-week low, declining by nearly 10% since the onset of the trade war. This significant drop in dollar value has made USD-denominated gold more affordable for foreign investors, resulting in increased gold demand and price action. Traders should note that gold is serving as a leading indicator for tariff impacts, with its price movements closely tracking currency fluctuations and trade policy developments (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 5, 2025).